It
all comes down to this…
By
Jeff Sallas
Well we are
finally to the end of the regular season.
The 13th week of SEC football. Each team plays 11 games and has 2 open weeks. It is interesting that the SEC was the most
determined organization to play on September 15th but has gained the
most from the postponements. The 2
biggest games are obviously the games at Gainesville and Baton Rouge that will
determine the SEC title game. It has
definitely been a good year with a lot of surprises. I think the most surprising teams have been Arkansas, Ole Miss
and Auburn. I think the most
disappointing teams have been Miss St and Bama although both teams’ wins over their
in-state rivals made things much better.
LSU has been a bit of a disappointment but only the loss to Ole Miss was
unexpected. Florida and UT have been as
good as everyone thought and the rest of the East went pretty much as everyone
expected. I will hand out my postseason
awards after the title game. Well we
have one last slate of games. I went
2-2 last week. That puts me at 56-22
(72%) for the season. I am not even
sure if a stellar week this week will put me at my usual 75% but let’s see what
we can do...
Tennessee
at Florida - The game of the YEAR (Saturday at 3:30 CDT on CBS)
It is finally
here. For the first and maybe only time
Tennessee and Florida will end the season playing each other. The stakes couldn’t be any higher. On the line is a divisional championship, a
possible conference championship and even a possible national
championship. The two titans of the SEC
duke it out to see who is the best.
Both are 9-1, one good play away from being 10-0. Both have won national titles in the last 5
years, Florida in 1996 and UT in 1998.
It just doesn’t get much better than this...
Obviously
Tennessee comes in as the underdog with the game being in Gainesville. They are also up against their current
record against Florida. Under Fulmer
they were only able to nip the Gators one time. The last 2 years they should have won the game but let it slip
away. Two years ago was about the only
time UT was far more talented than the Gators but they forgot to block Alex
Brown and made his career. Last year UT
destroyed the Gators most of the game rolling up 200 yards rushing but let
Florida win at the end on Jabbar Gaffney’s disputed catch.
This year the
Vols bring in a better team but so does Florida. UT has the complete edge in one department and that is running
the ball. Travis Stephens has piled up
1200 yards rushing and is the best RB in the conference. The Vol OL while injured part of the year is
still one of the best in the league.
Casey Clausen and WR Dante Stallworth have really come on down the
stretch. They are not lethal passing
like Florida but still very good. The
difference might be super-frosh Kelley Washington. He made some big plays in the Bama and South Carolina games at
crunch time. I think UT will be the
best offensive team Florida has played this year.
However there
is no doubt that Florida’s defense has been absolutely outstanding. Only one team all year long has scored 20
points on the Gators and that was really because of turnovers by the
offense. The Vol offense vs. the Gator
defense should be a great matchup. I
think UT will have to score around 30 points to win this game. That will be difficult and they will
probably need some help but I think they can do it. I think they have to go straight at the Gators and not try to
trick them. Win or lose the game with
the ball in the hands of Travis Stephens, Stallworth and Washington. Make Florida stop your best.
Meanwhile the
Vol defense will face their greatest challenge of the season as well. The Florida juggernaut has been awesome at
home this year as they average around 50 points. The weather forecast is good so I don’t think UT will get much
help there. Stopping the Gators starts
in the trenches. John Henderson and Co.
will have to get after Rex Grossman. I
look for the Vols to try a strategy similar to Auburn’s. That strategy consisted of stuffing the run
and not allowing Florida’s WR many yards after contact. They are going to get catches but don’t let
them break them for long gains. Auburn
forced Florida into getting impatient and Grossman made some mistakes. The problem is Steve Spurrier quickly
adjusted after that game.
I think
Florida will do what they usually do on offense but I do expect a few tricks
from Spurrier. I think Spurrier will
want to give UT something to think about other than Gaffney and Caldwell. I look for TE Aaron Walker to get involved
as he did in the LSU game when he had 5 catches for 88 yards. Then just when you lean the other way he
will then go to Gaffney and Caldwell. I
think Robert Gillespie will have a tough time running against the big strong
Vol defense. He is not a bad back but
much more of a finesse player.
This should
be such an awesome game to watch. There
are just so many good football players on both sides of the ball for each
team. It is incredible. Florida is the obvious choice but I don’t
think the Vols are as big an underdog as some think. I think the Vols are a very good and talented team. Other factors to include are that all the
pressure is on the Gators and they have become awfully cocky again. I am going with the upset...
TENNESSEE
OVER FLORIDA
Auburn at
LSU (Saturday at 6:30 CDT on ESPN)
The battle of
the Tigers for the SEC West. While
UT/Florida shows the best of the best I think the winner of this game will be
the team that plays the least worst.
Auburn seems ill-equipped on the offensive side of the ball to put on
much of a show and LSU tightens up big-time in these games. I would not carry many expectations of great
play in this game. It might be a tough
close game but I think there is a good chance it will be two teams trying not
to lose.
It really is
a study in contrast with the UT/Florida game.
The SEC East features the 2 superior teams, two tough teams and two
patsies. The SEC West has no superior
teams but is much tougher from top to bottom.
Auburn and LSU are good teams with big weaknesses. LSU has been horrible defensively. Auburn has been horrible offensively. The Auburn offense is void of coaching and
has gotten steadily worse as the season has worn on. Only a super performance by freshman RB Carnell Williams saved
Auburn at Georgia. The kid pretty much
won the game single-handedly considering none of Auburn’s other RBs could have
made the plays even with good blocking.
The really sad part is Auburn’s inability get the ball to it’s great
stable of WRs and TEs. Super playmakers
Tim Carter, Deandre Greene, Robert Johnson and Lorenzo Diamond have started to
gather dust they have been so under-used.
The Auburn
coaches have completely psyched out their 2 QBs and the rest of their RBs. Every time someone makes a mistake he is
jerked out of the game. Now everyone on
the Auburn offense is more worried about making mistakes than making
plays. It sounds like freshman Jason
Campbell will start with Dan Cobb in the bullpen at the first sign of
trouble. Yeh that sounds like it will
work out good. Campbell avoided this
game earlier in the season but now he must face the Tiger Stadium crowd and try
to lead Auburn to a victory.
On the other
side of the field there is no doubt that LSU can be lethal. Their offensive trio of Rohan Davey, Josh
Reed and Labrandon Toefield have really exploded down the stretch. However LSU has a solid history of
tightening up in games like this.
Against a horrible Bama team last year (the team they mutilated this
year when the pressure was off) the Tigers played so ridiculously tight and
conservative that they almost lost. The
same scenario has happened several times.
LSU’s best chance is to come out and throw caution to the wind and just
hit Auburn with everything they have got.
The Auburn
defense has been up and down most of the year but matches up with LSU pretty
good. Auburn has been pretty good at
defending the deep ball and tackling good WRs.
I don’t think LSU will be patient enough to nickel and dime Auburn all
night. The crucial part of the game
will be whether Auburn can contain the LSU running attack. I don’t think LSU’s offensive line is quite
as good as Bama’s who destroyed Auburn’s DL but they do have a better passing
game. The Auburn defense will have
their hands full. This matchup will
show the best of both teams while the Auburn offense vs. the LSU defense will
feature the worst.
This game
should be close if Auburn gets off to a decent start and LSU coach Nick Saban
plays a little conservative. However
things could get ugly for Auburn if LSU gets off to a quick start. The only scenario I can’t envision is Auburn
winning big. I just don’t think they
can score the points. There are several
factors in both teams favor. For LSU
they are at home and are closer to the SEC Title game than they have ever
been. They have a senior QB who usually
plays very good at home and an offense that is gelling at the right time. There is also the fact that Auburn took a
tough knockout blow from Bama. I just
don’t know if Auburn can get off the mat after that whipping. Auburn was in LSU’s spot and better off
against Bama. They had a 4-5 Bama team
coming in and they played at home with a SEC title spot waiting if they
won. They were in a much better
situation and just got rolled, however...
Auburn also
has several factors in their favor.
First and foremost they are back in their favorite and only winning
role, the big underdog with no chance.
This seems to be the only way Auburn can win a big game. Next most of their big wins under Tuberville
have been led by their defense and they match up pretty well with LSU. They just have to find a way to score some
points. Like I said I see both teams
playing not to lose but I am going to put my bet on the team with the most offensive
playmakers...
LSU OVER
AUBURN
Southern
Miss at Bama (THURSDAY at 6:00 CDT on ESPN)
This is
probably the most interesting game of the week outside of Gainesville and Baton
Rouge. There is a lot of interesting
story lines. Bama is battling to be bowl
eligible in the first. The next is the
fact that Southern Miss crushed Bama 21-0 last year. The last and the one that will effect the game the most is the
fact than Bama RB Santonio Beard has been suspended for a DUI over the
weekend. There is no doubt that this
will effect Bama. Beard is by far their
best RB and has really come on as of late.
He had almost 200 yards rushing against Auburn in their last game. However Ahmaad Galloway has started most of
the year and is very solid.
The Southern
Miss defense is much better against the run so Bama would probably be well
served to start Andrew Zow and throw the ball like they did against
Auburn. Get Freddie Milons and AC
Carter involved. They definitely helped
throw Auburn off-balance. The Southern
Miss offense is never that great but they usually don’t beat themselves. Another big factor in this game is the
weather. There are supposed to be
thunderstorms and it could get ugly.
Bad weather would probably help Southern Miss. However I think the difference is Bama’s improving lines. Bama’s DL has played well and their OL has
improved by leaps and bounds. I just
think that sooner or later Southern Miss will wear down...
BAMA OVER
SOUTHERN MISS
Vandy at
Ole Miss (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot???)
The only
other SEC matchup... Boy does this one
leave something to be desired. You have
two teams that are pretty down. This
will be the merciful end to another horrible season of Vandy football and the
career of Woody Widenhofer. Meanwhile Ole
Miss has dropped 3 in a row including a tough loss to Miss St last week. Vandy actually pulled the upset the last
time they came to Oxford. However I see
Eli Manning and Ole Miss ending the season on a good note.
OLE MISS OVER
VANDY
BYU at
Miss St (Saturday at 7:00 CDT on ESPN2)
Another
fairly interesting matchup. The
undefeated Cougars come to Starkville to see if they can finish the deal. Last year the Dogs crushed BYU in Utah. What a difference a year makes. State should be at their best after a big
win over Ole Miss last week. However I
think BYU may be a bit better against the run than the Rebels and can pass just
as well. BYU is a devastating offensive
team behind all-everything RB Lucas Staley.
State will come to play and score some points but I just don’t think
they can keep up.
BYU OVER MISS
ST
Kentucky
at Indiana (Saturday at 12:00 CDT)
This could
have been the absolute worst of both the SEC and Big 10 but both teams have
played better as of late. Kentucky
nearly pulled off upsets at Miss St and against LSU and Tennessee only to lose
at the end. Indiana actually pulled off
a few beating Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan St and Purdue. The Hoosiers are led by versatile QB Antwaan
Randle El. The guy has thrown for 1400
yards and run for another 900 more.
Pretty impressive. A good day
running against Kentucky (and that is likely) and Randle El could join Nebraska
QB Tim Couch as some of the only QBs ever to throw and rush for 1000
yards. Kentucky QB Jared Lorenzen has
also been on fire of late. This could
turn into a shootout but I think Indiana is a little better team and they are
at home.
INDIANA OVER
KENTUCKY
Houston
at Georgia (Saturday at 11:00 CDT)
Houston is
0-10. Is there anything else to say
about this stinker?
GEORGIA OVER
HOUSTON